Nascar heads to Homestead, Florida today where there is speed on the fence and multiple passing grooves. Championship contender Martin Truex was the fastest man in qualifying yesterday and will be starting on the pole. Completing the front row is fellow Toyota pilot Tyler Reddick, who is well known for his affinity to make speed on the wall. How do we see this thing shaking out this afternoon? Here are some of our best bets that are still available and playable after yesterday’s practice and qualifying sessions.
We have a TON of other action on this race. If you want the whole bag, give us a follow on Twitter (@speedwaysteve2). We’ll be posting our entire CBS SportsLine card an hour before the green flag!
Sunday Best Bets
0.25u – William Byron to win (+800, BetRivers)
1.1u - William Byron over Denny Hamlin (-110, market wide)
William Byron was fifth in our pre-race ranker that calculates a mix between direct and secondary track metrics along with recent form. Hamlin ranks sixth. However, after de-vigging the market, we found that we had a positive 4.93% expected value vs. bookmakers on a Byron outright ticket, while Denny Hamlin is negative 8.64%. That simply means bookmakers are overvaluing Hamlin and undervaluing Byron…by an actionable margin.
Hamlin’s short burst speed was marginally better than Byron in practice yesterday, but Byron hauled the mail during the longer stints. We’re happy to grab the outright value Byron along with the head-to-head against Hamlin.
1.14u – Alex Bowman over Ty Gibbs (-114, BetRivers)
We're fading Tyrone "Shoelaces" Gibbs in a big way this weekend. He was blazing fast in practice yesterday, but we don't trust the young pup with the car placement needed over 267 laps. Give us the veteran in this matchup.
0.5u – Joey Logano Top-10 Finish (+230, FanDuel)
Logano was our biggest advantage against the books entering the weekend. Using our direct and secondary comparable track data, we had more than a 10% overlay against the books. He was third best on the short stint during practice yesterday, and eight best on the long run. Then Logano put er’ in the wall and junked it. He’ll be rolling off last today after being unable to perform a qualifying attempt. His outright win number strangely shortened from +4500 pre-flop and is now going off at +2800 at most shops. While we aren’t comfortable in playing to win anymore, the top-10 number got longer, so let’s grab a piece of that. Logano’s Penske teammates were rocket ships yesterday, so let’s hope “Next-Gen” Joe and his back-up wagon are just as good as the primary.
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