This one may hurt some feelings, but that’s not for me to be concerned about. There are times you hear overrated chants in a crowd when certain players touch the puck, or the boos rain down from the rafters. But not all players live up to that monicker. I’m thinking of players who either don’t live up to the reputation preceding them or even having a reputation for something they’ve never attained. Part of it could be the expectations they had when arriving into the NHL, or part of it could be not meeting expectations in a big market. There’s room for debate on this one, and there may be players that others feel should be on this list. My one rule is that I will try not to pick multiple players from the same team.
Honorable Mention: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals; Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins; Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins
Seth Jones, Chicago Blackhawks
Seth Jones has been a shell of his former self over the past few seasons. His trade from Columbus to Chicago came as a bit of a surprise and the package to get him to the Windy City was even more surprising. At 29 years old, I don’t understand the hype that’s surrounded him the past few years. One could say he’s been on a bad team, but he has not been producing. The only reason he was an all star last year is because each team has to have a representative. He had 37 points in 72 games and was a minus-38 making $9.5 Million. His Corsi has dropped significantly and he’s become more of a liability than an asset in the ice. Maybe he was aided by some high scoring players and elite goaltending to make him look better, but Jones isn’t worth the contract he has, not by a longshot.
Trevor Zegras, Anaheim Ducks
Trevor Zegras is one of the biggest names amongst the younger crowd and one of the most marketable. But being marketable doesn’t make you an elite player. Zegras is a good player, but he feels more like a highlight reel type of player than anything else. He’s had back to back 60 point seasons but he offers little to no defensive upside and is a horrendous 41% lifetime faceoff winner. He held out of training camp this year, settling for $5.75M when his camp wanted more money. But you think of big moments in a game, whether it be taking an important faceoff, being on the ice when the other team has their goalie pulled, you won’t see Trevor Zegras. As an playmaking forward who has yet to reach 25 goals or 70 points, I think he has time to show he’s more than just a one trick pony, but he has a lot of improving to do.
Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars
Victim of a massive contract not paying off on the backend, Tyler Seguin is a shell of the player he once was. Usually a consistent 75-80 point player in his earlier days, the 32 year old has not scored more than 50 points since the 2018-2019 season. Normally you can live with 50 points, but not when you’re making $9.8M against the salary cap. He was a second overall pick, a Stanley Cup champion as a rookie, and a key part in Dallas’ offense, the lack of production is one that often gets overlooked because of the name. More importantly, lack of playoff production is what is concerning. In 72 playoff games for Dallas, Seguin has 14 goals and 26 assists, only amassing a shooting percentage over 10% in just one playoff run which lasted 7 games. A crafty veteran that can still carve a role out for himself, but he’s probably worth half of what he makes per season.
John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs
There were a couple options from the Leafs but I went right for Captain Canada. John Tavares has now been in the league for 15 years (feeling old yet?) entering the league as a first overall pick and a World Juniors performance that saw him win gold and tournament MVP. A very good player tallying near 1,000 points in his career and one of the best faceoff winners, but what has Tavares really won at the NHL level? He gets the fame for scoring the goal that broke the Leafs first round curse, just to be basically invisible in round 2. Last season half of his points came on a star studded power play. He hasn’t been an all star since 2019 and has only been a point per game player making $11M against the cap. JT gets a lot of love having never played more than 12 games in any playoff run and only seeing the second round twice in his career.
Philipp Grubauer, Seattle Kraken
The only goaltender on this list (there could be a few more) but definitely the one I’ve thought has been overrated for a few years now. On the surface, you look at a career 2.56 goals against average and .912 save percentage and think those are good numbers. However, he played six seasons in Washington with an elite team in front of him, as well as three years on a highly touted Colorado team. With great teams in front of him, he looked great. In Seattle, he has a .891 save percentage and 3.04 goals against average. He has yet to produce a save percentage above .900 in Seattle while having a horrific -35.9 goals saved above expected in just 98 appearances. He’s shown significant flaws in his game given he does not have an elite team in front of him. The guy once thought to be the future of the Capitals and Avalanche’s goaltending, is nothing more than an average goalie benefiting from high end talent in front of him.
Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
Andrei Svechnikov has, in my opinion, the worst luck of anybody in this list. Going into the 2020-21 and 2021-22, there was a lot of chatter about Svechnikov having that breakout season and making his presence known. And to a degree, he has. He had a career high 30 goals and 69 points in 20-21 and followed it up with 55 points in 64 games the following year all while playing a physical power forward type of game. The reason he’s on this list is because as high as the expectations are, there’s so much more to be desired than what he has been given credit for. He missed time in the 2018-2019 playoffs after Alex Ovechkin knocked him out in a fight and missed the remainder of the season and playoffs last year with a knee injury. When he went down, the storyline was “Carolina is going through the playoffs without their best offensive weapon”. In reality, the young Russian winger has to show me that he can consistently be a point per game player AND stay healthy.
Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders
Arguably the most exciting skater on the Islanders and one of the fastest in the league, Mathew Barzal entered the league on a high note winning the Calder Trophy in 2018. He had a career high in goals (22), assists (63), and points (85). After putting up 63 assists in that year, he’s yet to eclipse 63 points in any other season. I will give him a break in the goal department as he is not a natural sniper. However the Islanders need him to be able to step up, be a facilitator, and lead an offense that doesn’t always have a clear direction. His early career success often covers up the level of production vs what is expected and being careless with the puck. It took a two time all star 19 games to score a goal last season. A speedy playmaker by nature but he hasn’t lived up to the expectations he set for himself five years ago.
Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres
Is It premature to say Tage Thompson is overrated? Maybe. But if you look at his production over his career and look at the outlier, it’s not a stretch by any means. Being a piece of the Ryan O’Reilly trade, the 6’6 center proved last year he’s a force to be reckoned with 47 goals and 94 points in 78 games. Yet in the 223 games before that, he produced 56 goals and 103 points. Of course players progress, but not normally at the rate he has. Thompson has shot at an astounding 15.5% shooting percentage over the last two years, after not having shot at higher than 8.3% in any season prior. Just for reference, Connor McDavid and Austin Matthews have a career shooting percentage of 15.5% and 15.7% respectively. 20 of his 92 points came in 4 individual games last year while he was held off of the scoresheet in 25 of 78 games last year. He’s the definition of boom or bust and although he plays in all facets of the game, I don’t think what he did last year is sustainable. I can see him being a consistent 35-40 goal scorer with 80-85 points per year, but you can’t expect 45-50 goals a year from him while he clips the century mark in points.
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