After six weeks of playoff hockey starting with sixteen teams, only two remain. Representing the Western Conference, the Colorado Avalanche have been the best team in the West after a shaky first 12 games of the season. Their path through the conference included a sweep of the Nashville Predators, defeating the 2019 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues in six games, and sweeping the Edmonton Oilers. Tampa Bay Lightning, coming out of the East, defeated the Toronto Maple leafs in seven, swept the Presidents Trophy winners in the Florida Panthers, then defeated the Rangers in six games. It’s fitting that these two teams face off in the finals, as I feel they are the two most complete teams top to bottom. But, who has the advantage going in? I’m going to break the series down by current lines, defense, and goaltending, as well as give my prediction on the cup finals.
Line 1: Ondrej Palat-Steven Stamkos-Nikita Kucherov vs Gabriel Landeskog-Nathan Mackinnon-Valeri Nichushkin
Injuries to both teams affect these lines in different ways. Brayden Point’s injury slid Stamkos into the middle and Palat up into the first line, while an injury to Kadri solidified Nichushkin on the wing. My gut tells me Nathan Mackinnon will be the guy to take over the line and drive the pace of play up. Colorado’s top line plays with speed and forecheck slightly better than Tampa, but I think Tampa’s top line is slightly more balanced. Ondrej Palat was fantastic in the conference finals and complemented both Stamkos and Kucherov in the best way. At the end of the day, it’s a matter of whose star power wins out. And in this scenario, I’m ever so slightly taking the Avs. Advantage: Colorado
Line 2: Brandon Hagel-Anthony Cirelli-Alex Killorn vs Arturi Lehkonen-Mikko Rantanen-Andre Burakovsky
Anthony Cirelli is one of the most underrated two-way forwards in hockey. He shut down the top line of the Rangers, specifically Mika Zibanejad, when sharing the ice together in that series. He will have to do the same with Mikko Rantanen in this series in order to find success. This line will likely be tasked with handling Mackinnon, but there really isn’t a comparison here. Colorado is better across the board on this line and the wingers playing with Cirelli have underwhelmed this postseason. Meanwhile, Arturo Lehkonen has been a pleasant surprise as a trade deadline acquisition. Colorado is more physical, better offensively, and gets the nod here. Advantage: Colorado
Line 3: Ross Colton-Nick Paul-Corey Perry vs Alex Newhook-JT Compher-Nick Aube Kubel
These two lines have an interesting dynamic. Corey Perry, now in his third straight stanley cup final, is the old man of the group by a decade at 37 years old. Ross Colton and Nick Paul are a pair of solid players who, although have a bit more of a defensive game, have shown flashes of offensive brilliance. They find themselves in the right place at the right time. Colorado a balance between Newhook, an offensive minded playmaker, Compher a two-way forward, and Aube-Kubel, another two way forward but has taken on more of a defensive role on this line. I don’t like pulling this card, but I think the experience of having been to a cup final for Perry and Colton will factor in here. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Line 4: Andrew Cogliano-Darren Helm-Logan O’Connor vs Patrick Maroon-Pierre Edouard Bellemare-Riley Nash
These two lines will see the ice maybe 10-12 minutes a night, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t important. Depth is key to giving players a rest and often eating important minutes in a defensive role. I think that Tampa has the better depth on this line, but Colorado’s fourth line has stepped up in important moments. Darren Helm got the game winner to put Colorado into the Western Conference Finals and Andrew Cogliano is one of the grittiest players in hockey. On the other hand, Pat Maroon is making his fourth finals appearance in a row, and P.E Bellemare has been sensational in the faceoff circle. Not going to far in depth, but I like the Lightning in this circumstance. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Defense: Yes, I’m lumping defense into one big role because it’s easier that way. And regardless, I think Colorado across the board has an answer to everything Tampa throws at them. If you haven’t taken the time to watch Cale Makar and appreciate his game, look up any of his highlights and I promise you won’t be disappointed. Every time he is on the ice, the offense runs through him. Defensively, he can shut down any team’s top scoring threat with crafty skating and discipline. I think Makar is currently surpassing Tampa’s Victor Hedman as the best defenseman in hockey. Depth wise, I think Colorado has a better core than Tampa Bay. As good as Tampa is with Ryan McDonough and Mikhail Sergachev, I don’t necessarily see a weakness in Colorado’s defense. They play well at both ends of the ice and make minimal mistakes. They have an offensive pairing to drive the play as their top pair, defensive pairing made up of two physical players to wear opponents down, and a bottom pairing of an offensive Dman and defensive Dman. They limited the best player in hockey in Connor McDavid, which is a good prelude into this series. Advantage: Colorado
Goaltending: Andrei Vasilevskiy vs ?
I’m curious to see what Colorado’s goaltending situation is as Darcy Kuemper is still dealing with an eye injury. However, Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best goaltender in hockey in my opinion. One of the only goalies in hockey that can steal an entire series, Vasy has to be on his game against a high-flying Avalanche team, and I think he will be. He has four days off to recover but not long enough between games for him to get rusty. In the Colorado series, he sported a 0.75 GAA and .984 save%. When at his best, there’s nobody in hockey better than the 27 year old Russian. For Colorado, Kuemper and Pavel Francouz have both been good enough to get the job done, but Colorado would prefer Kuemper if he’s ready to return. GM Joe Sakic went out and acquired Kuemper in the offseason from Arizona with the expectation that he would be the final piece to the puzzle. He’s good, but this isn’t really up for debate. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Keys to Victory:
Don’t get into a high scoring affair with Colorado. That never ends well, so slow the game down and play a more tactical game defensively. From there, they can look to break out from their own zone to create opportunities. Tampa thrived in creating odd man rushes this playoffs and that is where they can effectively use their speed. Additionally, stay out of the penalty box and stay disciplined. The last 5 goals given up have come as a result of a power play opportunity or chance right after when the team was disorganized. Multiple penalties taken were purely just lack of discipline or execution. In order to shut down an Avalanche offense averaging 4.64 goals per game in the playoffs, they cannot make mistakes on the backend. No bad giveaways, step into passing lanes for the cross ice pass, and don’t panic or get overwhelmed by Colorado.
Colorado Keys to Victory:
The Avalanche aren’t just great at playing with momentum, they can suck the life out of an opposing team's building. They are currently unbeaten on the road at 7-0 and outscoring opponents 36-20. Take control of the game early, and force Tampa Bay to play undisciplined to create opportunities. Nazem Kadri is likely out for the rest of the season, so players such as J.T. Compher and Arturi Lehkonen will have to step up and play a bigger role, especially with Rantanen moving down the middle as a second line center. The depth players have shown up for Colorado all postseason in big spots. They have to continue to do it here.
Prediction: I hope this series goes to seven games. This is the Stanley Cup Finals matchup I’ve looked forward to most in at least a decade. This year’s Tampa Bay team is arguably better than last year’s and Colorado may be one of the best teams since the 2015 Chicago Blackhawks. However, I originally wrote a piece about NHL Playoff Storylines at the start of the playoffs. In that blog, I had Colorado going all the way and winning the cup. I think the cup gets won on Tampa’s home ice, but the crowd will be quiet watching the Avs lift Lord Stanley high in the air. Cale Makar will win Conn Smythe as playoff MVP, and Colorado wins the series in Tampa in 6 games.